Tagged: World Series

NostraDavis Reveals the 2012 MLB Season

Can the Atlanta Braves overcome their 2011 collapse? (IllegalShift/Flickr)

I have a long standing history of making wild predictions about sporting events, every now and then I’m right, but as with just about everyone, I’m usually dead wrong.  That is unless you are part of the Las Vegas mob who controls all of sports in the United States.  I love to fill out NCAA Tournament Brackets (Men and Women), not because I follow either sport, just because of the off chance I might nail that bracket and be able to brag to everyone that I had it right (I predicted the Carmelo Anthony Syracuse run to the title).  I will lay down a prediction on just about anything you put in front of me, it’s a miracle I haven’t developed a gambling addiction.  But without a doubt my favorite prediction time of the year is just before the greatest grind of a regular season is about to begin, Major League Baseball.

How anyone on earth can possibly predict how 4,860 games will ultimately play out is nothing short of insanity.  That’s just the way I like it.  And no doubt about it, I’m every bit as insane as the next buffoon proclaiming his knowledge of the future.  So enough of the ramblings, here we go, I’ll break it down division by division, then I’ll go so far as to predict the crapshoot that is the MLB Playoffs.  Take notes people.

AL East

Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles

It appears to me that the Yankees have insured themselves in the pitching department enough that they should be able to take this division.  Their lineup is getting a little long in the tooth no doubt, but it is more than experienced enough to succeed still in a pennant race.  I expect the Rays to give them a run for their money, but will have to settle for a Wild Card berth.  The Toronto Blue Jays may be an emerging powerhouse, the Red Sox are a trainwreck, and the Orioles are the Orioles.

AL Central

Tigers, Twins, Royals, Indians, White Sox

Quite possibly the safest prediction in the world in 2012.  The Tigers are doing their best impersonation of the AL East spending, and it should work at least this year.  The Twins are much better than their record last year indicated, the Royals will be very good very soon but will deal with some growing pains, the Indians and White Sox are in rebuilding mode and will be the Tigers’ whipping boys.

AL West

Rangers, Angels, Athletics, Mariners

This is probably the toughest call to make.  I still felt though even with the addition of Albert Pujols, the Angels lineup is seriously lacking.  The Rangers should make up for the loss of everyone’s favorite Straight Edge jerk (sorry, it’s personal) CJ Wilson with the addition of Yu Darvish and the presumed progression of Derek Holland.  They still have the most feared lineup in baseball if you ask me, and that will be enough to take the crown for the 3rd straight year.  The Athletics are in a state of purgatory, but the talent exchange that took place this offseason should keep them just about where they were last year, ahead of the hapless Mariners.

NL East

Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Marlins, Mets

The Braves choked away the wild card lead last year to the eventual World Series Champion Cardinals, but they were and are a much better team than that.  They were a sexy playoff pick last year, and this year they’ll meet that potential.  Chipper Jones’ swan song season will give him one last shot at a second ring.  The Phillies already had offensive inconsistency with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in the lineup, both are major question marks for the 2012 season, they’ll probably ride their pitching to a Wild Card.  The Nationals are up and coming and should be a .500 team and perhaps a 2nd Wild Card sleeper, the Marlins gave $100 Million to Jose Reyes and will quickly regret it, the Mets are the Mets.

NL Central

Reds, Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, Pirates, Astros

This may be the weakest division winner of the 6.  I don’t see anyone in this division getting more than 91 wins this year, but that should be more than enough to take the crown.  The Reds may have gotten a blessing in disguise with the Ryan Madson injury, just check his career numbers at Great American “Small” Park, Mat Latos should be decent enough but he’ll miss the spacious Petco Park.  Joey Votto and Jay Bruce will carry this team to victory.  .  The rest of the division is going to be filled with rampant mediocrity and utter ineptitude (Houston Astros).

NL West

Diamondbacks, Giants, Padres, Rockies, Dodgers

The Diamondbacks have quietly put together something of a powerhouse team down in the desert.  The additions of Trevor Cahill, Jason Kubel, and a full season from Paul Goldschmidt will keep the Snakes at the top of the mountain.  I expect the Giants offensive struggles to continue in 2012 with lateral acquisitions in Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan, they’ll be in it, but they’ll fall short.  The Padres are much like the Kansas City Royals in that they’ll experience some growing pains in 2012, but the core of young talent is there so they’ll win some games.  The Rockies are wildly inconsistent and not even the modern day Satchel Paige in the person of 49 year old Jamie Moyer can rescue them.  The Dodgers will not contend until Frank McCourt is out of the way.

AL Wild Card

Rays and Blue Jays

NL Wild Card

Phillies and Nationals

Ultimately I see the emergence of a new power duo in Toronto in Jose Bautista and Brett Lawrie, and the Blue Jays sneaking their way into the World Series to take on the Braves in a 1992 World Series rematch.  Let’s give Chipper the Elway treatment and have him win it all before he walks away from the game and awaits his shrine in Cooperstown.  Braves, 2012 World Series Champions.  

 

Follow me on Twitter and see me analyze the season as it plays out @SeanD25.

Things That Make Baseball “Purists” Squirm: Volume II

Without the DH, this is a horrifying image we would see all too often. (Eric Kilby/Flickr)

To many fans of National League teams, the mere mention of the Designated Hitter will elicit responses of “I hate the DH” or “That’s not REAL baseball” or perhaps my personal favorite “That’s why I only follow the NL.”  Not exactly sure what kind of baseball fan intentionally neglects half of the Major Leagues, but that’s another story for another time.  Nevertheless, the DH is one of the most contentious and hotly debated aspects of the game, and it is not going away any time soon.

SI’s Tom Verducci reported from an unnamed baseball official last week that the NL would adopt the DH within the next 10 years.  The article notes that this development could come as a by product of a much bigger shift in the game, geographical realignment.  The idea being, the identity of the AL and NL would be nonexistent, therefore a uniform set of rules would be put into place.  I don’t mind the idea of adding the DH to the NL, but I despise the idea of geographical realignment.

This report though got me thinking about all the discussions I have had with many of the baseball fans I know.  Being in the San Francisco Bay Area, most of those fans are Giants fans who are exactly the kind of people who would say the responses I noted earlier.

So where do I stand on this issue?  I am 100% pro DH.  Why? Well I’m glad you asked, let me enlighten you.

The most common response I get from people whenever the DH comes up is that the pitcher is on the field, therefore he should bat.  I understand that in theory this makes him accountable for perhaps brushing a guy back for crowding the plate, since the pitcher himself would have to step in there shortly after.  I don’t think the game has much of an issue with players being able to police themselves, besides if a batter has a real problem with what the pitcher is doing, the mound is only 60 feet 6 inches away if you know what I mean.

I personally don’t understand why people so desperately want to see a guy who more than likely has a career average in the .100’s and hasn’t hit regularly since high school or college step into the box.  Yes, the pitcher’s spot in the order forces the manager to shuffle his position players around to prevent that automatic out, I picture NL fans applauding and high -fiving each other every time the manager goes to the home plate umpire to make a double switch.  Verducci himself raves about Game 6 of the 2011 World Series because Ron Washington used 9 guys in the number 9 spot in the order.  I’m pretty sure it was the Rangers being a strike away from winning it all, twice, and David Freese’s heroics that made that game a classic, but maybe I’m the crazy one.

For every bit of lineup shuffling that DH haters cite as their reasons for their hatred, I cite the bullpen shuffling that is necessary for facing a full lineup of hitters.  When a team is facing the Boston Red Sox, I am willing to bet that the opposing manager is just as concerned about how he is going to navigate through that lineup with David Ortiz settled in the middle, than that same manager would be about the pitcher’s spot during an inter league series in an NL park.  Just because the chess match is in a different aspect of the game, doesn’t make it any less strategic.

The fact that the DH keeps some of the greatest hitters active a little longer is a nice bonus.  Guys like Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Frank Thomas, Hideki Matsui, and David Ortiz are able to prolong their careers when perhaps their bodies won’t allow them to endure the grind of playing in the field everyday.  I can’t imagine what the league would be like if suddenly so many players had to retire 5 years premature because they can’t field their positions like they used to.  It’s rare that a player can keep up defensively into his late 30’s or even his 40’s, because, you know, not everyone has Barry Bonds’ “ability.”

My Name is Sean, and I Have An Obsession.

No it’s not like the people you see on TLC who can’t stop brushing their teeth, or collecting Cabbage Patch Kids, or anything that compels me to appear on a fascinating cable TV show. But I do have an obsession… baseball. It’s something I grew an affinity for at a very early age, and unlike the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, it never wore off. In fact, it has only intensified as the years (or seasons perhaps) have passed.

My first memory of baseball, albeit a vague one, is from 1989, the last time the Oakland Athletics won the World Series (As I’m constantly reminded by suddenly boastful San Francisco Giants fans). I started kindergarten about a month or so before the Battle of the Bay began when the A’s and the Giants met for the first time ever in the Fall Classic. Understandably so, everyone was rather excited about it here in the Bay Area. What was fascinating to me at the time was the fact that everyone was choosing sides, suddenly neighbors were adversaries, colleagues were opponents, everyone had a horse in the race. Of course at the time I didn’t necessarily have a complex understanding of the fan dynamic surrounding me, but I was put in a situation where I too had to take a side.

My father grew up in the greater Los Angeles area and moved up to northern California in the 1970’s, he was an imported Dodgers fan. So naturally he wasn’t about to move to the Bay Area and start rooting for the mortal enemy of the team he grew up with. Thus my fandom of the A’s was born, years before I was.

Back to my kindergarten class, again the memory is vague, but I recall my teacher asking the class who they were rooting for. It seemed like every kid in the class raised their hand when asked if they wanted the Giants to win. When the A’s were mentioned with the same question? Just me. Or at least that was how it felt. All my best friends were Giants fans, I was the weirdo who liked that other team in the East Bay. That team who had won 3 straight World Series titles 15 years prior, that team who was the defending American League Champions, that team who should have been the defending World Series Champions if it hadn’t been for Kirk @#$%&%# Gibson and Orel Hershiser. That didn’t matter though, the Giants were more popular, and I was the baseball outcast, who would ultimately have the last laugh.

As years went by and I grew up, my understanding of the game grew with me. After the years of the Bash Brothers faded into the past, Rickey Henderson was off on his journey throughout Major League Baseball, all those players I had emulated while playing baseball with my Dad had moved onto greener pastures (or at least other pastures), I feel that my true appreciation for the game took hold. The A’s were flat out miserable during the 90’s, in ways that make the current situation in Oakland seem optimistic in many ways. Mike Oquist, Dave Telgheder, Brent Gates, Eric Fox, Steve Ontiveros, and lest we forget Ariel Prieto were some of the many “marquis” names to don the white cleats during those lean years. But I still loved them. I witnessed some putrid games during that time, but I came back for more. I sat in amazement as the monstrosity that came to be known as Mount Davis was erected. Not the kind of amazement that you might experience on your first visit to Disneyland, but the kind of amazement where you’re thinking “I can’t believe they’re doing this.”

In the early 2000’s the A’s finally experienced a renaissance with the emergence of Billy Beane’s supposed genius and the Moneyball methodology. I was proud that I had stuck through the miserable 90’s to see them bounce back. But it brought me to the 3rd stage of my baseball life, true understanding.

I had begun to dabble in fantasy baseball, which at the time had been primarily done using old fashioned methods of (gasp) writing numbers down and keeping track of stats yourself. I recall a rotisserie league draft my Dad participated in which took something like 8 or 9 hours to complete, I had no interest in that kind of thing just yet, but I still for some reason recall one of the players excitedly proclaiming his pick to be “BOBBY BONILLAAAAAA!!!” The things that stick in your memory block are certainly curious sometimes. Anyway, with the development of the internet and the migration of fantasy sports into the digital age I decided to give that a try. It was at that point that I began to understand not only who the good players, the bad players, and the elite players were, but why they were. The stats are the lifeblood of the game of baseball. Without an understanding of what those numbers really mean, I think it’s impossible to have anything beyond a casual interest in the game. Sabermetrics changed everything, for me, for Billy Beane, and for all the baseball nerds out there.

I want to make something perfectly clear though, as I begin to develop this blog I want people to know that while I do appreciate the value of statistical analysis, I think there are some things that simply cannot be evaluated, or predicted by the numbers. I have always felt that sometimes you just have to sit and watch a guy play, and if you know what you’re seeing, you can determine if they are the real deal. So I will most definitely refer to the box scores and the many resources available online for research, but I will definitely not be using those numbers as a crutch. If I slip into any of that kind of nonsense, I can only hope that someone will call me out on it.

So what is this blog all about anyway? It’s about what ever happens in the world of baseball. For people like me, this is the holiday season. For me this year, Christmas Day is March 28th when my Athletics battle the Seattle Mariners from Tokyo. I say this knowing full well that they will more than likely draw Felix Hernandez in game 1, which usually equals a shutout, but that’s okay, because baseball will be back.

It’s not a news blog, I assume pretty much anything I write about will be known to the masses already through the seemingly infinite news sources surrounding the game. But I will give my honest opinions about what I see happening and what I think may happen next all around the baseball world. I can certainly not proclaim to be the Nostradamus of MLB blogging. I placed a $20 bet on the A’s winning the 2011 World Series, envisioning a run to the promise land much the same way the Giants won the 2010 title (worst day of my life), we all saw how that turned out. But I will certainly not be shy about taking a stab at predicting the future and if by some chance I nail it, I’ll have evidence that I called it.

I will also look to build a podcast that may serve as a companion to the blog, a blogcast if you will. I have a background in radio broadcasting at Sonoma State University and would very much like to meld that background with my new venture of blogging.

I suppose that will about do it for this little (more like long winded) introduction. Now everyone has an idea where I’m coming from. I may skew in the direction of the A’s from time to time as the season dictates, but make no mistake, anything and everything is fair game in this blog.

Now you all know the nature of this obsession, but rather than cure it, I hope you all will embrace it with me. It’s a beautiful, beautiful thing.

I guess my blog is a leap year baby. Look forward to celebrating its first birthday on February 29, 2016!